No matter the recent fixes, no matter which popular method you use; PE, Shiller CAPE Ratio, Buffett Market to GDP Comparison; it is one of the largest markets since 1923. The other two are the markets of 1929 and 2000 and we know how these are. Also, 1923 was the year the “Composite Index” was introduced, the former S&P 500.
The record shows that while property prices can continue for a long time, it will change with practice. That can be done in two ways. Or the market will go the long way for long periods of time until yields rise or the downtrend continues to adjust prices to match historical PE statistics – a return to normal. It has been shown throughout history that investors are not a patient group. They wait in the sidewalk market for a while, but when they get tired they return and put their money where they believe it will result in more energy. When that ball turns, the market changes, and the market may hold. Clarity: there is a big drop in the store.
The question is when will this previous adjustment be a hic-up or a start for a major crisis. A study of major potential markets suggests that this may be the case. Yes, a review of the 28-and-new market that has been in place since 1923 shows that it is still an introduction for all major potential markets. Some people are mistaken that the stock markets are crashing at the top of the market. It is far from the truth.
The stock market may be different, but hospitality is kind. There will always be an announcement of the coming fall, with more focus between the blessing and the drop of the decline, and the opportunity to emerge ahead of the real truth. This is shown in the analysis below for each of the following potentially significant markets (28% or less): 2007, 2000, 1987, 1973, 1968, 1962, 1946, 1937, and 1929. Prices for day and weekends are only available. for the S&P 500 from 1950 onwards. Therefore, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was used for the markets before that.
The first peak for the 2007 market came on July 17 when the S&P 500 was up 1555.90. The index is expected to decline next week and fall to the entry level of 1370.60 in the month following August 16 – a 11.9% drop. From now on, all highs and lows will break free but not to mention. The market for the next seven weeks will rise to the top of the market for the index 1576,09 October 11, 2007 – 1.3% higher than its previous high. It was followed by a 5.5% dip followed by a rapid recovery to 1552.76 October 31, before a fall and a 10.8% decline to 1406.10 November 26, 2007. It returns The index continued to rise to 1523.57 and continued on the lower low levels until 666.79 on March 9, 2009 for a 57.7% decline.
The 2000 market had a lot of warnings ahead of the Dot.com crisis. The market weakened immediately after the opening of the New Year on January 3. After reaching the 1478 high, the S&P 500 fell to 1455.22 at the close. It dropped below 1400 three days later and returned to 1465.71 – the high of January 20, 2000. From there the train went down to a low of 1329.15 on February 25 – it has a 10.1% decline from its high to date. The stock closed at 1552.87 on March 24, 2000. April 14 fell sharply to a low of 1339.40 – a 13.7% decline – but raised sharply to 1530.09 September 1, 2000, just 1.5% below its all-time high. Then it goes downhill and with sharp drops the meetings follow but only to the downhill lines. The market declined to 775.80 October 9, 2002 for a 50.1% decline.
The bear market grew rapidly in 1987. After declining to a high of 337.89 on August 25, 1987, the S&P 500 fell to 308.58 on 8 September – an 8.7% hit. It jumped to 328.94 on October 2, just 2.6% from its high. It jumped below 300 October 15 before next Monday’s crash to close 224.84 – a 20.5% loss for the day. It closed below December 4, 1987 at 223.92 but the slightest move came the day after the retreat, October 20, down to 216.46 for a loss of 36.0% from high of August.
This, with the potential market of 1968, was part of a large mega market that lasted from 1967 – 1982. S&P grew in the 100 and 110 regions for most of the year. The 110 block was removed at the end of the summer and dipped again in front of him before his final climb at the close of the year. It rose from 119.79 on December 12, 1972 to 4.3% to 114.63 on December 21, 1972. The New Year raised its high index to 121.74 on January 11, 1973 – a gain of 1.6% at the front height. It dropped sharply to 111.85 on February 8 and moved backwards on the masses until it fell below 60.96 October 4, 1974 – 49.9% loss.
Following a drop in the start of the year, the market rose from March to November at the end of December 2, 1968 when the S&P 500 rose in 109.37. The index fell to 96.63 on January 13, 1969 (a decline of 11.6%), joined its rally from 0.43 points on the low of March 17, and then added up to 106.74 May 14, 1969. After reaching the top 2.4% it fell and hit the May 26, 1970 low of 68.61. That is 37.3% of hair loss.
The stock market increased from October 1960 to December 1962 when the S&P 500 rose to 72.64 on December 12, 1962. It dropped to 67.55 on January 24, 1963 for a 7.0% loss. The index quickly returned to 70 the following week, with little gains next month rising to 71.44 March 15, 1.7% below its high. Subsequently, the index declined to 51.35 June 25, 1962 for a decline of 29.3%.
The market was in tears since the end of the Second World War which began in 1946 with a figure of 8% until February. The intraday highs and lows of the S&P 500 are not available for analysis, so the Dow Jones Industrial Aids will be used in the future. The Dow Jones closed on 206.61 February 5, 1946. The index fell 10% to close on 186.02 on February 26. The previous high was higher than the color horse. up to 212.5 May 29, 1946 – 2.9% of subsequent Article income. The pace continued until August when the index reached 204.52 on August 13 and then fell sharply and closed at 163.13 October 9, 1946 for a 23.2% decline. Despite a number of conference attempts, the market persisted until February 1948 with a significant loss of 28%
After the fall of 1929 to 1932, the market was in a state of recovery until the beginning of 1937. The Dow Jones closed on 194.4 March 10, 1937 to mark the end of climbing. The index decreased for three months until the end of June 14, 1937 to 165.51 for a 14.9% loss. Spent over the next two months, on the upside it finally reached 189.34 August 16, 2.6% below the previous high level. That was his last concern when the market fell to 49.1% to its 98.95 March 31, 1938 Dow Jones close.
Similar to the 2000 market, the Great War of ’29 was a great warning. After a bearish move for the first half of the year, the market went up a 10.0% correction moving from 326.16 Dow Jones closing on May 6 to 293.42 May 27. Afterwards, it rose. volatility until the market lands near 381.17 September 3, 1929. The decline slowed, slowly at first, but intensified to a low on Friday, October 4 and closed. 325.17 Dow Jones – a 14.7% loss. Crazy activity was strong to recover the following week but was only able to manage 352.86 closing October 10. At 7.4% lower than the September high, this is the lowest pass near the previous high of potentially large markets. Once again, this is the dead ancestor of all bears. Ten days later, on October 24, the index closed below 300. It dived Monday, October 28 and the next day closed at 230.07. The market continued to decline until the end of July 8, 1932 when the Dow Jones closed at 41.22 for a record 89.2%.
Preliminary data show that all major potential markets since 1923 are still a warning to buyers. Following the appearance of the top, they find a significant decline before rising again to the next future. Twice, 2000 and 1929, two warnings; the first a light adjustment before the top, and the second after the top.
Decreases after the first peak ranged from 14.9% to 4.3% with an average of 10.8% and a median of 11.6%. In the third of nine cases, 2007, 1973 and 1946, the second peaks were lower than the first. It ranged from a loss of 7.4% to a gain of 2.9% and a median -1.4% average of -1.7%. Taking 1929, 7.4% previously, the average -0.63% and the median range -1.6%. The time between the two peaks ranged from 30 days to 5.4 months with an average of 96.7 days and a median of 93 days.
Starting with the understanding that we are in the beginning of a potentially large market, once the 10% adjustment has been completed, what is ahead of us? Researching the data, we turn out to be average. There seems to be no connection between the potential market potential and the gap between the two peaks. However, five out of six times the market underwent a double adjustment, 10% or more, several months, between 2.9 and 5.4 months, to get the market to start and the very beginning. The only exception was the 1929 Crash, which lasted only 37 days between the first peaks and seconds. While there is no consistent model for the depth of primary depreciation and the decline in depreciation, it is important that the fourth major approaches reduce the decline by 49% or more – a level reached in the market probably 1973 following a decline of only 4.3%. . There is no obvious relationship between the first decline and the second level of the top, nor the decline of the decline and the second level of the top.
As Morgan Stanley predicts this Monday, it is likely to start faster in the second quarter, which may be correct. It has risen above the -7.4% level since 1929, so it looks like this market is not entirely connected to that, and is waiting for the next peak to be measured in months. However, I would warn everyone to carefully monitor the market progress. If the S&P 500 rises within the 2.6% of the top 2872.87 January 26, that is, 2798, it is your signal to exit the stock market. There is no reason to be greedy with the final results 1, 2 percent may be more likely to lose others.